Section of secret report into plans for Bristol underground released

A crucial section of a secret report that concludes a Bristol underground would cost £18bn has finally been released following pressure from the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS).

It contains details of the costs for a proposed mass transit system for the region and outlines “significant challenges” with how it would be funded.

These have now been disclosed for the first time after the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) agreed to publish the findings that focus on finance on its website – and they reveal the astronomical price tag does not even include buying land, demolishing buildings and associated legal fees, or even a machine to drill the tunnels.

The one faint glimmer of hope is that, if they ever do find the money to create a tube network in the first place, money from passenger fares will be more than the cost of operating and maintaining it – a profit of between £5bn and £10bn over 60 years, depending on what kind of vehicles are used, but this is still a huge loss on the building costs.

Orange routes indicate what lines could run partly underground – image: Bristol City Council

The report said: “There are significant costs associated with constructing and operating such a complex and extensive mass transit network, in particular for the capital costs for options requiring tunnelled sections.

“At this stage of scheme development there is not a clear position of how the mass transit system would be paid for and/or operated.

“The funding and financing strategy identifies that it is likely that many of the funding and financing avenues may be required for discrete elements of the programme but are unlikely to be able to deliver it in its entirety as there is no single pot of money and delivery solution that can deliver such a large programme at one time.

“This is particularly true for options involving significant tunnelled sections where the capital costs are considerably higher than the overground options.”

Really looking forward to the near future when we can finally drop this ridiculous notion of an underground, stop wasting time, and focus on the best mass transit and transport plan for Bristol. It has embarrassed and distracted us long enough. https://t.co/l9R1Wo0a8W

— Cllr Emma Edwards (@bristol_pip) July 27, 2023

The LDRS has appealed to the Information Commissioner’s Office against WECA’s decision to keep the rest of the 248-page feasibility study under wraps after it refused our Freedom of Information (FOI) request to release it, a decision the combined authority upheld after we asked for an internal review.

We have argued that the full document should be published in the public interest and that the elected head of WECA, Labour metro mayor Dan Norris, has said he has no problem with that.

But officers in legal and democratic services have determined that the report by consultants WSP should not be released for now because it is still in draft form and based on incomplete data, so could “prejudice future decision-making and debate” and create a “misleading impression of the work being carried out”.

This is despite us having already obtained and widely reported its conclusions that say an underground for the West of England would cost between £15.5bn and £18.3bn, while an overground network would set taxpayers back about 10 times less – £1.5bn to £1.8bn.

Two other reports that are more favourable to the prospect of a tube system were released by Bristol city Labour mayor Marvin Rees last year, while his spokesperson said his office “totally rejects [WSP’s] report and its content”, blaming it on a “flawed approach” by WECA.

Rees, who has made an underground a key pledge, put the real cost at around £7b, which is still almost double the £4bn initial estimate when the idea was first announced six years ago.

The 18-page section on finance from WSP’s report, published this week without fanfare on the combined authority’s website, said the idea for tunnels faced “significant affordability challenges”.

It said: “At this stage of the process, both land costs and building demolition costs have been excluded from the cost estimate; this includes all associated legal fees.

“Due to the potential extent of land requirement, CPO [compulsory purchase orders] and other related factors, it would not be proportionate to provide a guide figure.

“Items related to any public realm improvements and active travel requirements have been excluded from the cost estimates at this stage.

“The purchase of the tunnel boring machine (TBM) has been excluded at this stage as the overall requirements are not yet known; it may be that no, or multiple, TBM units would be needed to complete the operation.

“This will also be dependent on the number of TBMs that are available at the time of construction and the demand of other projects of a similar nature at that time, including HS2.

“This will be a significant factor affecting the project depending on which options are taken further.

“Due to the nature of the TBM process it is expected that traffic management requirements for underground sections will be significant at the site entrance and installation/transport of the TBM machine on site.

“Volatility in material costs, labour and plant availability has meant that the current costs will likely alter within shorter timescales than normal.

“This may have a significant impact on the anticipated costs of the project.”

Tables of figures show a rubber-wheeled system – basically, buses on dedicated routes – would cost £15.5bn while the bill for a steel-wheeled network – such as light rail requiring tracks – is £18.3b.

The same respective costs for an overground are £1.5bn and £1.8bn.

The report said tunnel maintenance was the “most significant infrastructure maintenance cost” at an estimated £1,250 per metre.

It said operating and maintaining an underground would cost £13.2bn over 60 years for a rubber-wheeled network and £18.7bn for a steel-wheeled network, compared with £3.1bn and £10.7bn respectively for an overground.

A tube system would generate £23.9bn in fares over the same period, with an overground receiving £16b, the report said.

When WECA rejected the FOI at internal review it said it intended to publish the report this autumn when mass transit proposals go before WECA committee.

The published section of the report is here.

Main photo: Betty Woolerton

Read next:

• Bristol underground would cost £18bn, secret report reveals
• West of England mayor denies ‘blowing millions’ on Bristol underground study
• Rees admits underground dream may not survive after he leaves office

Listen to the latest Bristol24/7 Behind the Headlines podcast: